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Pinnacle-3 +100 BET365 -3 -110SportsInteraction-3 -1125DIMES-3 -110Bookmaker-3 -110

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

Super Bowl LV

Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Kansas City -3 +100 over TAMPA BAY

6:30 PM EST. And then there were two. This year's Super Bowl promises to be one of the higher scoring matchups with great quarterbacks and receivers and mostly average defenses for both franchises. What's not to love about the final game pitting Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill against Tom Brady, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin? The Chiefs are the team that usually falls behind and then mounts a comeback so thorough that it all seems like the filming of a movie. The Buccaneers are the 'never quite there' 7-9 team from 2019 that added the oldest quarterback in the world and made a last-minute buy on a former starting running back that was left on the side of the road right before the season kicked off. Darkhorse? The Buccaneers had 14-1 odds to win this Super Bowl as of last summer.

The Chiefs are becoming the new Patriots, ironically, only with the best offense and somehow accomplishing the one thing that eluded the Patriots - combining a dominant, elite team with a roster of highly likable players. It doesn't hurt that they arguably mix the best quarterback, wide receiver and tight end for an unstoppable effect.

This is the second meeting of these teams this season. The Chiefs won 27-24 at Tampa Bay in Week 12. The parallels to the playoff meeting against Brady and the Patriots in 2018 are easily overblown, but they denied Patrick Mahomes the chance to play in a Super Bowl in every year that he's played. The Patriots won 37-31 in overtime thanks mostly to a rushing effort that netted 154 yards and four touchdowns.

This is the first Super Bowl held in the home stadium for one of the contestants. And ironically, again, it happens in a COVID season where there will not be the same activities and attendance as in any other year. There will be about 25, 000 fans in attendance at Raymond James Stadium, with cutouts used to fill the other seats.

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The Chiefs trailed 9-0 before scoring three touchdowns in the second quarter and rolled on past in their 38-24 win over the Bills in the Conference Round. The Chiefs haven't fallen as far behind in games as they did in the 2019 playoffs, but they did start slowly last week. The passing effort bounced back after lower efforts since Week 14 but the Chefs' rushing effort lagged the same as the rest of the season. The two-week wait for the Super Bowl will help the Chiefs get healthier but they were able to beat the Bills by two touchdowns with the pared-down roster.

What will be important is the loss of RT Mitchell Schwartz to a back injury and even more so, LT Eric Fisher who injured his Achilles last week. It is not a death knell by any means, but it is a negative facing the Buccaneers defense ranked No. 4 in sacks (48) during the regular season.

Let’s go back to that first meeting, a 27-24 K.C. win that looks so much closer than it actually was. It is highly notable that Mahomes posted a career-best passing yardage (462) and the same skill players are healthy for this one. The Chiefs were up 27-10 in the fourth quarter and were about to make it 34-10 when the Locker Room employees stepped in and changed the course of the fourth quarter. Without going into details, the Bucs scored two garbage TD’s to make the final score a three-point loss when it in fact should’ve been a four touchdown loss. The Bucs also lost 38-3 to the Saints. The point is, Tampa can get blown out while the Chiefs cannot. We made a much similar point about the Bradys when they were up in Lambeau Field two weeks ago. Luckily for the Bucs, the Packers are run by a bunch of idiots. Do you think that the Chiefs are going to let Tommy off the hook if he chucks up three interceptions like he did in Green Bay? Brady’s stat line in the NFC Championship was 20-of-36 for 280 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions with one of those majors coming on a fourth down hail mary to end the first half where the Packers were caught napping. If Brady plays as he did up in Green Bay, the Chiefs are going to eat him alive. Even if he plays his best game of the season, it’s still asking a lot for the old man to keep up with the wunderkind.

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If Brady has the edge over Mahomes in any area, it’s his pull with the Locker Room employees. Whether intentional or not, Tommy Boy gets the call just about every time. Again, look at that game against the Packers. The officials let the Buccaneers defenders ride the Packers' receivers like it was the Kentucky Derby without the acknowledgement of a foul, but when one of Brady’s boys had his undershirt tugged on an uncatchable ball, the flag came flying in from 40 yards away to seal the victory for the Bucs. It is impossible to know how this game will be officiated, which is one of the reasons why the NFL is so frustrating not just to wager on but watch as well. The game script goes something like this, kickoff, commercial, flag, flag, commercial, flag, commercial, flag. In the end, if all things are equal, the superior team, the superior coach, and the superior QB will emerge. Once the football is in the air to kick things off, all the intangibles are completely out of our control. We’ll just sit back and know that we’re going “with the best of it” by getting the Chiefs at a bargain.

Commercials are often the main draw of the big game for those that would typically never watch football. However, with Super Bowl parties set to be much more limited or even non-existent depending on your local restrictions, the pandemic looms large over this game as it has all season. Hell, even Budweiser decided to sit this one out. Hopefully, this break in tradition is just limited to one season, and we can all be elbow deep in the buffalo chicken dip when Super Bowl LVI kicks off in 2022. Stay safe out there and enjoy the game. Thanks for all the support this season. We truly appreciate you all. Go Chiefs.

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Our Pick

Kansas City -3 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)